Dr. Theodore T. Allen

What we do: We make educational content and share it using Google Ads, Facebook, and other media with key U.S. citizen groups. We also measure learning using AYTM surveys and quizzes on our website. Our qualifications: Our officers and members are experts at social media analytics and artificial intelligence. We seek to use that expertise…

Counterperformativity relates to the limitations of models in complex adaptive systems. The flaws in models are quickly exposed when they are employed and the conditions under which the model does not apply quickly arise. The key example is the crash of the stock market in 1987 relating the use of the Black Sholes model for…

In a previous post, I proposed a metaphor for the government as a large number of dials that policymakers can set while acknowledging physical and political constraints. In this post, I discuss the two dials which I perceive have been the most important issues in determining voter identities in the USA. These issues are the…

        In my work, I develop, apply, and teach statistical methods. I have helped manufacturers, hospitals, biologists, voting systems, and an airline company to gather and interpret data. In virtually every case, a variety of beliefs or conjectures guided our initial inquiries. Then data were collected, and the facts were determined. Beliefs…

“A few months ago, I told the American people I did not trade arms for hostages. My heart and my best intentions still tell me that’s true, but the facts and the evidence tell me it is not.” – President Ronald Reagan (March 1987) “It is not a lie if you believe it.”  – George…

    The left-right spectrum depiction of society is oversimplified and misleading. In this view, the only decision for citizens and leaders to make is how big a government. Real large-scale systems are characterized by many factors, not just one.  Reducing everything to “left versus right” throws away lots of useful information and discourages learning…

       It is clear that our society is full of people, organizations, and media spreading misinformation and division.  They do this to advance partisan or marketing goals or just to undermine our society.   They are succeeding.  In our survey responses, we observe around 40% correct answers relating to basic knowledge relating to…